In our tool, these hypotheses are then evaluated through a process inspired by the analytical method called analysis of competing hypotheses ach 2. A pdf of this type expresses the uncertain probability that a process will. Both are being used to teach and train intelligence analysts throughout the intelligence community and in a growing number of academic programs on. Structured analytical techniques such as the analysis of competing hypotheses can help add considerable value to intelligence before it is disseminated. There is moar to structured analytic techniques than just ach. Pdf structured analytic techniques for intelligence. Good analysis requires identifying, considering, and weighing the evidence both for and against all the reasonably possible hypotheses, explanations, or outcomes. After describing what inhibits our thinking, this thesis describes analysis of competing hypotheses ach, a simple model for how to think about a complex problem and attempts to prove its.
Oct 22, 2015 analysis of competing hypotheses is a simple model for how to think about a complex problem. This primer highlights structured analytic techniquessome widely used in the private sector and academia, some. Designed for strategic and tactical intelligence analysis national security, defence, trade, etc. In this first blog post we will look at what analysis of competing hypotheses ach means and how it can support security analysts. Structured analytic techniques for intelligence analysis by. How to structure analysis of competing hypotheses ach.
Understand the importance of critical thinking and how to apply it to the analysis process. We examined the use of the analysis of competing hypotheses acha technique designed to reduce confirmation bias. The third edition of structured analytic techniques for intelligence analysis by randolph h. Analysis of competing hypotheses military wiki fandom. The structured analysis of competing hypotheses offers analysts an. Mar 21, 2019 the intelligence community uses structured analytic techniques to help analysts think critically and avoid cognitive bias. These are among the most common causes of intelligence failure. Use evidence, the presence or adsense of indicators arguments, or assumptions to disprove hypotheses. Analysis of competing hypotheses breaks a complex problem down into its component parts. Making analytic arguments more transparent by articulating them and. Our domain lacks discipline in analysis where our hypotheses are not deterministically and immediately testable. Assessing the value of structured analytic techniques in. Structured analytic techniques in action with sarah miller beebe, and several other guides for analysts on writing, briefing, indicators, and managing the production process. It can also guide research teams toward more productive discussions by identifying the exact points of contention.
Instilling more structure into the intelligence analysis. Analysis of competing hypotheses ach is a simple model for how to think about a complex problem. Cw matrices, decisionmaking process and indicators 89 10. A place for analysis of competing hypotheses ach in cyber. Pdf the analysis of competing hypotheses in intelligence analysis. It helps an analyst overcome, or at least minimize, some of the cognitive limitations that make prescient inte. See an alternative views produce a more confident hypothesis one hypothesis will score stronger that the rest h1, h2, h3 based on available evidence. The analysis of competing hypotheses ach provides an unbiased methodology for evaluating multiple competing hypotheses for observed data. Pdf extending heuers analysis of competing hypotheses. Structured analytic techniques for intelligence analysis. Both are being used to teach and train intelligence analysts throughout the intelligence community and in a growing number of academic programs on intelligence or national security. Case narrative 79 the assassination of benazir bhutto. It takes you through a process for making a wellreasoned, analytical judgment. From tradecraft to profession the use of structured analysis techniques in risk and security management with a focus on analysis of competing hypotheses.
However, little evidence exists of how techniques are applied and whether they are effective. Analysis of competing hypotheses a hypothesis is a declarative statement that has not been established as true. Heuer jr showcases sixtysix structured analytic techniquesnine new to this editionthat represent the most current best practices in intelligence, law enforcement, homeland security, and business analysis. Intelligence organizations promote the use of structured methods such as analysis of competing hypotheses ach to improve judgment accuracy and analytic rigor, but these methods have received little empirical testing. Heuer, 9781452241517, available at book depository with free delivery worldwide. Ma is originally developed for structuring a complex problem space, while ach is developed for hypothesis evaluation. The structured analytic techniques toolbox the learners. Detailed examination of the elements or structure of. It is a procedure for determining which of a range of hypotheses is most. Implemented in dstcs sheba technology for structured, evidence based analysis of hypotheses. The analysis of competing hypotheses in intelligence analysis.
A tool for analyzing competing hypotheses technical description for version 1. Analysis of competing hypotheses ach is a multi variable, qualitative technique that aids judgment on important issues requiring careful weighing of alternative explanations or conclusions. The analysis of competing hypotheses ach 7 was developed to provide a framework for assisted reasoning that would help overcome these limitations. Uses the subjective logic calculus for approximate reasoning under conditions of uncertainty. The intelligence community uses structured analytic techniques to help analysts think critically and avoid. The analysis of competing hypotheses ach 7 was developed to provide a framework for assisted. Analysis of competing hypotheses, ach, is a simple model for how to think about and fuse geospatial information into analytic problems. Analysis of competing hypotheses is one technique for doing this. Alternative analysis, and in particular ach, is seen as so important that the cias sherman kent school for intelligence analysis runs a monthly alternative analysis workshop and has introduced an. Richards heuer is the author of psychology of intelligence analysis cia center for the study of intelligence, 1999. The structured analytic techniques toolbox the learner. It is not a comprehensive overview of how intelligence officers conduct analysis.
The next section describes analysis of competing hypotheses ach, an intuitive, structured method of evaluating evidence for and against a range of. As private sector intelligence capabilities and tradecraft continue to evolve, structured analytic techniques are being incorporated into intelligence programs. Extension of heuers original ach approach to intelligence analysis. To reproduce this article for educational use, read more articles by richards j. Defining a cwfocused structured analysis of competing hypotheses 89 9. A tool for generating, structuring, and analyzing multiple. Analysis of competing hypotheses using subjective logic. The structured analysis of competing hypotheses offers analysts an improvement over the limitations of the original ach. Improving probability judgment in intelligence analysis. Heuer jr showcases sixtysix structured analytic techniques. Rather, the primer highlights how structured analytic techniques can help one challenge judgments.
Pdf in this paper, we evaluate the analysis of competing hypotheses ach method using a. The analysis of competing hypotheses, ach, is a method to aid judgment on important issues requiring careful weighing of alternative explanations or conclusions. It is an analytic process that identifies a complete set of alternative hypotheses, systematically evaluates data that is consistent and inconsistent with each hypothesis, and rejects hypotheses that contain too much inconsistent data. Intelligence organizations promote the use of structured methods such as analysis of competing hypotheses ach to improve judgment accuracy and analytic rigor, but these methods have received. A condensed version of this has been published as can we do better than ach. The former provides a methodology for overcoming intelligence biases while the latter outlines how mental models and natural biases impede clear thinking and analysis.
Assessing the value of structured analytic techniques in the. Ach is grounded in basic insights from cognitive psychology, decision analysis, and the scientific method. Resolving goal conflicts via argumentationbased analysis. According to wikipedia, the structured analysis of competing hypotheses offers analysts an improvement over the limitations of the original ach. The developed analysis method is an iterative process combining morphological analysis ma and analysis of competing hypotheses ach. Just as analytic techniques provide structure to our individual thought processes, they also provide structure to the interaction of analysts within a team or group. Free download from parc april 22, 2009 matt artz analysis of competing hypotheses ach is a simple model for how to think about a complex problem when the available information is incomplete or ambiguous, as typically happens in intelligence analysis. The analysis of competing hypotheses method, or ach, is one of the most important tools on the intelligence analysts bench. Pdf from tradecraft to profession the use of structured. Most structured techniques are best used as a collaborative group process, because a.
May 23, 2018 as private sector intelligence capabilities and tradecraft continue to evolve, structured analytic techniques are being incorporated into intelligence programs. Structured analytic techniques for intelligence analysis by richards j. Analysis of competing hypotheses ach is a multivariable, qualitative technique that aids judgment on important issues requiring careful weighing of alternative explanations or conclusions. Analysis of competing hypotheses indicators business consulting top six. Jul 07, 2008 analysis of competing hypotheses analysis of competing hypotheses, sometimes abbreviated ach, is a tool to aid judgment on important issues requiring careful weighing of alternative explanations or conclusions. Apr 22, 2009 analysis of competing hypotheses ach is a simple model for how to think about a complex problem when the available information is incomplete or ambiguous, as typically happens in intelligence analysis. Analysis of competing hypotheses using subjective logic achsl. As we have included ach in our geospatial analytic method, it takes the geospatial analyst through a process to make wellreasoned, analytical judgments using both nongeospatial and geospatial information. While the level of structured facilitation can vary e. Structured analytic techniques for intelligence analysis free. Pdf the analysis of competing hypotheses in intelligence. Also recommend analysis for competing hypotheses by heuer, which is a great read. Structured analysis of competing hypotheses the structured analysis of competing hypotheses offers analysts an improvement over the limitations of the original ach.
This primer highlights structured analytic techniquessome widely used in the private sector and academia, some unique to the intelligence profession. Structured analytic techniques in action 93 death in the southwest 101 in the spring of 1993, residents of the four corners area of the us. Jul 19, 2019 it is not a comprehensive overview of how intelligence officers conduct analysis. Recognize cognitive bias and understand how it can affect your analysis. For example, two tested hypotheses could be that iraq has wmd or. Improving intelligence analysis with ach by richards j. To overcome such cognitive biases, structured analysis of competing hypotheses sach asks you to begin with the simplest possible hypotheses and then to drill down, becoming increasingly specific, expanding and deepening the estimative conclusion. Structured analytic techniques for intelligence analysis book. The sach maximizes the possible hypotheses by allowing the analyst to split one hypothesis into two complex ones. There is moar to structured analytic techniques than just. The software downloadable here takes an analyst through a process for making a wellreasoned, analytical judgment.
The fourth section outlines the major cognitive biases that bedevil analysts. Analysis of competing hypotheses an analytical process by former cia analyst richards j heuer, jr. The intelligence community uses structured analytic techniques to help analysts think critically and avoid cognitive bias. Pdf the intelligence community uses structured analytic techniques to help analysts think critically and avoid cognitive bias. The techniques found in this primer are designed to assist in this regard by. Pherson showcase fiftyfive structured analytic techniquesfive new to this editionthat represent the most current best practices in intelligence, law enforcement, homeland security, and business analysis. An introduction to ach a good security analyst uses a portfolio of known structured techniques, methods and skills that support them in their job. Singh department of computer science, north carolina state university, raleigh, nc 276958206, usa. The analysis of competing hypotheses, ach, is a method to. For example, two tested hypotheses could be that iraq has wmd or iraq does not have wmd. The sach maximizes the possible hypotheses by allowing the analyst to split one hypothesis. The program comes with multiple nice features and tools that you can check out, as well as some samples and instructions. His book is used throughout the intelligence community for training intelligence and counterintelligence analysts. Generating and testing hypotheses is a core function of structured analysis.
For a long time humans were accepting the truth of a hypothesis by offering supporting evidences. Ci 303 structured intelligence analysis techniques. Heuer 15, is an analysis method inspired by how hypothesis testing is used within scientific. It helps an analyst overcome, or at least minimize, some of the cognitive limitations that make prescient intelligence analysis so difficult to achieve.
The open source analysis of competing hypotheses project. Methodology and tool to facilitate structured analysis of. A possible explanation of the past or a judgment about the future is a hypothesis that needs to be tested by collecting and presenting evidence. Structured analytic techniques course flashcards quizlet. Summary the intelligence community uses structured analytic techniques to help analysts think critically and avoid cognitive bias. The scientific process involves observing, categorizing, formulating hypotheses, and then testing those hypotheses. Organisation of analysis of case studies 95 step 1 identify the possible hypotheses. He coauthored critical thinking for strategic intelligence with katherine hibbs pherson, cases in intelligence analysis. A place for analysis of competing hypotheses ach in. As in other areas of expert judgment, intelligence analysis often requires judging the probability that hypotheses are true.
Structuring and analyzing competing hypotheses with bayesian. Resolving goal conflicts via argumentationbased analysis of. It is designed to help analysts avoid confirmation bias in several respects, namely, by explicitly requiring them to a consider alternative hypotheses. Structured analytic techniques for intelligence analysis and millions of other books are available for amazon kindle.
In this second edition of structured analytic techniques for intelligence analysis, authors richards j. Theory and application that suggests a way to iterate ach efforts. Apr 30, 20 one wellknown structured and facilitated approach in the intelligence community for comparing hypotheses is analysis of competing hypotheses ach. An analytical process by former cia analyst richards j heuer, jr. The analysis of competing hypotheses in intelligence. How does analysis of competing hypotheses ach pherson. The analysis of competing hypotheses ach is said to an unbiased methodology for. Analysis of competing hypotheses, sometimes abbreviated ach, is a tool to aid judgment on important issues requiring careful weighing of alternative explanations or conclusions. Extending heuers analysis of competing hypotheses method. Additionally, indicators and information shared without analysis are not intelligence.
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